Fleet Replacement, Technology Choice, and the Option to Breach a Leasing Contract
研究了在成本不确定下更换内燃机车和电动车车队时，违反租赁合同的选择权，推导出最优技术选择和违约策略，并以法国邮政数据验证了违约的成本效益。
We analyze the option to breach a leasing contract when replacing a fleet of ICVs (internal combustion engine vehicles) and EVs (electric vehicles) subject to cost uncertainty. We derive the optimal policy for technology choice and breaching ICV contracts. The decision to breach is shown to offer both cost savings resulting from reduced ICV operating costs and preemptive acquisition, but incurs additional costs arising from the need to compensate for breached vehicles and in the form of opportunity costs. We also demonstrate that the effects of breaching a leasing contract have a ripple effect across the decision horizon, thus amplifying the impact of a single breach. A numerical study based on data from La Poste, the French postal service, shows that breaching a leasing contract in this context offers measurable cost benefits.