Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle
利用欧洲货币体系数据发现,在固定汇率制度下,远期贴水之谜(高利率货币倾向于升值)大部分消失,表明无抛补利率平价的偏离与汇率制度有关。
Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high-interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the "forward discount puzzle."Using data from the European Monetary System, we find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates.That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way which is dependent upon the exchange rate regime.By using the many EMS realignments, we are also able to quantify the "peso problem.