The Global Extent of the Great Moderation
利用98个国家1961-2007年的年度数据，发现2008年金融危机前GDP增长波动性降低不仅限于美国，而是许多发达和发展中国家的普遍现象。
Abstract In 2008 the US financial crisis spilled over into a number of other economies causing declines in GDP across the world. Yet the decades preceding the current downturn had been a period of unprecedented stability for the US economy. This article examines annual data for 98 countries over the period 1961–2007 and finds that lower GDP growth volatility in the period preceding the current crisis was not confined to the US. It is detected in a number of developed and developing countries, suggesting that a reduction in volatility in this period was a more general phenomenon.