Misinformed Speculators and Mispricing in the Housing Market
研究发现2000年代中期外地第二套房购买者的需求不仅推高了房价，还加剧了错误定价，且这些购买者像信息错误的投机者，资本利得更低、股息更少。
This paper examines the contribution of out-of-town second-house buyers to mispricing in the housing market. We show that demand from out-of-town second-house buyers during the mid 2000s predicted not only house-price appreciation rates but also implied-to-actual-rent-ratio appreciation rates, a proxy for mispricing. We then apply a novel identification strategy to address the issue of reverse causality. We give supporting evidence that out-of-town second-house buyers behaved like misinformed speculators, earning lower capital gains (misinformed) and consuming smaller dividends (speculators). Received August 4, 2014; accepted August 28, 2015 by Editor Stefan Nagel.