"Experts" Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky
基于对金融分析师预测准确性的研究，发现那些成功预测单一异常事件的分析师，其长期多次预测的准确记录往往不佳，表明在评估商业预测者时应降低对异常事件预测的权重。
An interview is presented with business scholar Jerker Denrell focusing on his research study, carried out with colleague Christina Fang, on the accuracy of financial analysts' forecasts. He discusses the finding that analysts who successfully predict a single highly unusual event often have poor records in terms of the accuracy of multiple predictions they make over time, saying this suggests accurate prediction of unusual events should be discounted in evaluating business forecasters.