Organizational Accidents: A Systemic Model of Production versus Protection
用系统动力学方法建立因果模型，分析生产管理与安全保护之间的动态互动如何导致组织事故，并通过澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚致命落石事故案例揭示生产压力、风险容忍度、安全边际感知与保护努力之间的复杂关系。
abstract Production pressure is often cited as an underlying contributory factor of organizational accidents. The relationship, however, between production and safety protection is complex and has not been adequately addressed by current theories regarding organizational accident. In addressing this gap, this paper uses the methodology of system dynamics to develop a causal model to address the dynamic interaction between management of production and protection, which can accumulate in an organizational accident. A case study of a fatal rock fall accident in Tasmania, Australia was conducted based on the developed model and is used to uncover the intricate dynamics linking production pressure, risk tolerability, perception of safety margin, and protection efforts. In particular, the study demonstrates how a strong production focus can trigger a vicious cycle of deteriorating risk perception and how increased protection effort can, ironically, lead to deterioration of protection.