The Impact of Structural Change on Physical Flows in the Economy: Forecasting and Backcasting Using Structural Decomposition Analysis
使用结构分解分析研究非能源物质流，基于荷兰1990-1997年数据，发现出口驱动的“再物质化”趋势，并预测到2030年物质使用将持续增长。
<i>Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is employed to examine physical flows other than energy and energy-related emissions. A unique set of hybrid-unit I/O tables, including both physical and monetary data, was constructed for this purpose. The decomposition results are used to perform forecasting and backcasting (target) analyses. The approach is applied to the use of iron and steel, and plastics in the Nether-lands over the period 1990 to 1997. The analysis shows that export-driven “rematerialization” has occurred during this period, and that the physical volume of the materials considered will continue to grow until 2030 under a wide range of scenarios.</i>