China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program: Does Expansion Equal Success?
基于2003年农户调查，评估退耕还林工程的实施效果，发现土地瞄准受政策目标影响但存在错配，工程对种植、养殖和总收入有正向影响但效果不稳健，农户自主权不足可能削弱效果。
This paper uses a 2003 household survey to examine implementation and impacts of China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program. We find that land targeting has been strongly influenced by program goals, but that mistargeting also occurred. Using a treatment effects approach to evaluate program impact, we find evidence of positive impact on cropping, husbandry, and total income, though the results are not robust enough to support government claims of huge gains. We also find evidence that lack of participant choice could be dampening program impacts, and that allowing households autonomy could lead to improvement in program cost-effectiveness and outcomes. <i></i>