Options Contracts with Overbooking in the Air Cargo Industry
研究了航空货运中航空公司与货运代理之间的期权合同，推导出最优预订策略，并基于真实数据分析了超售对利润的影响，为货运运力提供商提供管理启示。
ABSTRACT In today's world economy, which is marked by intensified international trade, air cargo acts as a key facilitator. However, cargo airlines continue to struggle to be profitable because of very high asset costs and substantial demand uncertainty. To improve upon this situation, we propose an options contract. Our model captures the main features of cargo trade between an airline and a freight forwarder and allows us to derive an optimal reservation policy. We then go on to analyze the impact of overbooking on the profit of the cargo capacity provider. The model is subsequently applied to real‐life booking data provided by a major cargo carrier. This enables us to compare current contractual arrangements with the ones proven optimal in the model. A numerical study provides insights about the impact of overbooking on contract parameters and profitability. Managerial insights to be drawn conclude this study.