Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data*
利用共识经济学对预期通胀和产出增长的调查数据，估计欧洲央行的泰勒规则，发现央行在设定利率时考虑了预期变量，而传统模型中的实际通胀系数不显著。
Abstract We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero.