Supply-Side Option Value: Further Discussion
探讨了在不确定性条件下，供给侧风险如何影响期权价值的符号，发现当需求确定而供给不确定时，期权价值可能为正，这对环境评估等领域的成本收益分析有参考价值。
The literature on benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty has devoted considerable attention to identifying conditions under which the sign of option value can be determined. Option value is the difference between an ex ante, sure welfare measure based on expected utility functions (known as option price) and the expected value of welfare measures defined ex post for each state of nature. Previous investigations have shown that there is limited ability to specify analytically the sign of option value. If uncertainty concerns the preferences of individuals, then the sign of option value cannot be established without placing restrictions on preferences (Schmalansee 1972; Anderson 1979; Smith 1983). However, Bishop (1982) has demonstrated that if the uncertainty concerns the supply of the good in question, with certain demand for the good, then the sign of option value (OV) may be positive (see also Brookshire, Eubanks, and Randall 1983). Since many valuation situations involve supply-side risk, Bishop's discovery is of some rele-