Financial Globalization, Financial Crises, and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets*
用一个两部门模型研究新兴经济体金融一体化的过渡动态，发现金融危机概率先升后降但长期不为零，股权和债券持有量变化模式与新兴市场全球化后的实际动态一致。
Abstract We study the transitional dynamics of financial integration in emerging economies using a two‐sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt and trading costs incurred by foreign investors. The probability of a financial crisis displays overshooting; it rises sharply initially and then falls sharply, but remains non‐zero in the long run. While equity holdings fall permanently, bond holdings initially fall, but rise after the probability of a crisis peaks. Conversely, asset returns and asset prices first rise and then fall. These results are in line with the post‐globalization dynamics observed in emerging markets, and the higher frequency of crises that they display.