The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound
用贝叶斯方法估计非线性DSGE模型，量化2008年底美国经济触及利率下限的冲击大小，发现零利率下限导致2009年GDP约30%的收缩并阻碍复苏。
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that pushed the US economy to the lower bound in late 2008 as well as the contribution of the lower bound constraint to the resulting economic slump. We find that the interest-rate lower bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean estimates imply that the zero lower bound (ZLB) accounted for about 30 percent of the sharp contraction in US GDP that occurred in 2009 and an even larger fraction of the slow recovery that followed.