History, Path Dependence and Development: Evidence from Colonial Railways, Settlers and Cities In Kenya
利用肯尼亚殖民时期铁路建设的自然实验，研究空间均衡的形成与持续，发现尽管殖民者离开、铁路衰落，殖民城市仍持续存在，并检验了四种路径依赖的解释。
Little is known about the extent and forces of path dependence in developing countries. Colonial era railway construction in Kenya provides a natural experiment to study the emergence and persistence of a spatial equilibrium. Data spanning over one century show that railways determined the location of European settlers, Asian traders and the main cities at independence. Europeans then left, Asians departed and railways declined in the immediate post-independence period, constituting local shocks to physical and human capital. Yet the colonial cities persisted. We test four explanations for path dependence based on institutional persistence, technological change, sunk investments and spatial coordination failures.