THE CONTRIBUTION OF THIRD-PARTY INDICES IN ASSESSING GLOBAL OPERATIONAL RISKS;*
研究了第三方指数能否准确反映国家运营风险，以及该风险如何影响进出口供应链规模，对81个WTO成员国的数据分析表明某些指数有效，且运营风险对贸易量有负面影响。
In the face of global uncertainties and a growing reliance on third-party indices to obtain a snapshot of a country's operational risks, we explore the related questions: How accurately do third-party indices capture a country's operational risk, and how does the operational risk of the country, in turn, affect the volume of its import and export supply chains? We examine these questions by empirically investigating 81 member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) using archival data collected from UN agencies, independent think tanks, the WTO, and the Economist Intelligence Unit. We use seven third-party indices to gauge a country's internal environment and map those indices to corresponding country-specific operational risks to further understand the consequent effects of those operational risks on trading volume. Results provide strong evidence for the use of certain third-party indices in assessing operational risk. In addition, operational risks are found to negatively affect the volume of import and export supply chains, albeit in varying degrees.