Identifying Drivers of Land Use Change in China: A Spatial Multinomial Logit Model Analysis
研究利用1988-2005年数据，通过空间多项Logit模型分析中国土地利用变化的驱动因素，发现城市土地价值推动农田开发，农村收入增长促进退耕还林还草，而城市收入和道路密度增加则减少草地转化但加剧森林砍伐。
This paper presents an empirical analysis of major drivers of land use change in China from 1988 to 2005. We compile a geographic information system database and develop a new method to estimate an econometric land use model that explicitly takes into account the spatial interactions between land use decisions. Results indicate that increasing urban land value was a major driver of farmland development, while rising rural income was a primary driver of conversion of farmland to forests and grassland. The growth of urban income and road density reduces grassland conversion but increases deforestation. <i></i>