Two‐Way Capital Flows and Global Imbalances
通过模型说明新兴经济体金融市场不发达如何导致其与发达国家之间的双向资本流动，并复现了中国近年资本外流、外资流入及贸易失衡现象，同时指出全球失衡可能长期持续，且新兴经济体“储蓄过剩”导致低利率的传统观点可能错误。
This article shows how underdeveloped financial markets in emerging economies can explain the pattern of two‐way capital flows between emerging economies (such as China) and the developed world (such as the United States). Our calibrated model reproduces China’s rising financial capital outflows and FDI inflows as well as its massive trade imbalances in recent decades. Our model also predicts that global trade imbalances may be sustainable even in the long run and the conventional wisdom that the ‘saving glut’ of emerging economies is responsible for the global low interest rate may be wrong.