Does Incarceration Length Affect Labor Market Outcomes?
利用一项将监禁时长增加约1个月的改革，研究发现更长的短期监禁降低了失业率并提高了收入，可能因为改善了改造条件和激励。
This paper studies how longer incarceration spells affect offenders’ labor market outcomes by using a reform that increased incarceration lengths by approximately 1 month. I use detailed register data for offenders who predominantly serve incarceration spells of 1–2 months. I analyze the sample for several years prior to and after incarceration and show that the reform led to an exogenous increase in incarceration lengths. I find that the longer incarceration spells result in lower unemployment rates and higher earnings, possibly because marginal increases in short incarceration spells improve conditions and incentives for rehabilitation, while the costs of jail related to these outcomes are unaffected. I show that the estimates are robust to different econometric specifications and further provide evidence that my results are not driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions.