Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?
研究了调查预测者能否比简单假设变量未来值单调趋向长期预期做出更准确的预测，发现共识预测的能力因变量而异，且主要限于当前季度预测。
This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long‐run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.