Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach
使用半参数加性混合模型，发现失业率、通货膨胀和政府消费对美国总统支持率存在非线性负向影响，并揭示了宏观经济变量之间的非参数三变量交互效应。
Summary Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well‐known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.