THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN GOOD AND BAD TIMES
用分位数回归方法研究经济政策与结构性冲击的传导是否随经济状态变化，发现美国实际活动与利率之间存在显著的非对称传导效应。
Does the transmission of economic policies and structural shocks vary with the state of the economy? We answer this question using a strategy based on quantile regressions, which account for endogenous regressors and state‐dependent parameters. An application to U.S. real activity and interest rate reveals pervasive asymmetries in the propagation mechanism across good and bad times. During periods when real activity is above its conditional average, the estimates of the degree of forward‐lookingness and interest rate semi‐elasticity are significantly larger (in absolute value) than the estimates associated with below‐average periods. Results are robust to alternative strategies to model state‐dependent parameters.