Maternal Expectations and Ex Post Rationalizations: The Usefulness of Survey Information on the Wantedness of Children
评估了回顾性调查中关于孩子意愿度信息的价值，发现父母在生育结果更好时更可能事后报告孩子是想要的，导致避孕失败导致的不想要生育比例被高估26%。
In this paper we assess the value of retrospectively-ascertained information on the wantedness of children....We formulate a dynamic model of fertility incorporating stochastic fertility control uncertain child traits and information accumulation from which we can formulate a rigorous definition of child-specific unwantedness. Based on information on both retrospectively obtained and pre-birth information on wantedness and on childrens birthweight we find that parents are more likely to report that children are wanted ex post if they have a better birth outcome and exhibit overly optimistic expectations about their childrens traits and/or risk preferences. As a consequence published statistics on the prevalence of unwanted births overstate the true proportion due to contraceptive failure by 26 percent. The geographical focus is on the United States. (EXCERPT)