Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence
利用美国1950-2010年数据，估计边际税率变化对申报收入的动态影响，发现对顶层1%收入者有较大正向效应，且对其他收入群体也有影响，但会加剧税前收入不平等。
This paper estimates the dynamic effects of marginal tax rate changes on income reported on tax returns in the United States over the 1950-2010 period. After isolating exogenous variation in average marginal tax rates in structural vector autoregressions using a narrative identification approach, I find large positive effects in the top 1 % of the income distribution. In contrast to earlier findings based on tax return data, I also find large effects in other income percentile brackets. A hypothetical tax reform cutting marginal rates only for the top 1 % leads to sizeable increases in top 1 % incomes and has a positive effect on real GDP. There are also spillover effects to incomes outside of the top 1%, but top marginal rate cuts lead to greater inequality in pre-tax incomes.