The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either
基于理论认为税收的自主变动与自动反应应有不同影响，利用新数据集发现税收冲击对产出的影响介于先前研究的大效应与小效应之间，且几乎没有预期效应的显著证据。
I argue that, on theoretical grounds, the discretionary component of taxation should be allowed to have different effects than the automatic response of tax revenues to macroeconomic variables. Based on a novel dataset, I show two results. First, responses to a tax shock that allow for a distinction between the discretionary and the endogenous components of tax changes are about halfway between the large effects estimated by Romer and Romer (2010) and the smaller effects estimated, for instance, by Favero and Giavazzi (2012) or Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Second, there is almost no statistically significant evidence of anticipation effects.