STATISTICAL MODELING OF STOCK RETURNS: EXPLANATORY OR DESCRIPTIVE? A HISTORICAL SURVEY WITH SOME METHODOLOGICAL REFLECTIONS
调查了20世纪中叶以来金融文献中提出的股票收益统计模型，并从当代科学哲学视角区分哪些模型是解释性的、哪些是描述性的，重点关注模型诞生动机与金融经济学理论范式及概率论变化的互动。
Abstract The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to survey the statistical models of stock returns that have been suggested in the finance literature since the middle of the twentieth century; second, to examine under the prism of the contemporary philosophy of science, which of the aforementioned models can be classified as explanatory and which as descriptive. Special emphasis is paid on tracing the interactions between the motivation for the birth of statistical models of stock returns in any given historical period and the concurrent changes of the theoretical paradigm in financial economics, as well as those of probability theory.