Quality, Subjectivity, and Sustained Superior Performance at the Olympic Games
研究发现，在奥运会中，过去表现对未来表现的预测作用在主观评分项目（如体操）中比客观项目（如田径）更强，且国家层面的过往成绩对拳击比赛中的裁判打分影响大于对击倒获胜的影响。
In some competitions, performance evaluation includes a substantial subjective component. We argue that the inherent uncertainty and ambiguity in subjective evaluation can lead to favorable ex post treatment for reputationally privileged competitors. Post consumption, judges may infer quality that is not directly observed and/or make conservative choices to assuage accountability concerns. We examine these issues in the context of the Olympic Games, comparing country-level performance outcomes across Olympic sports. We find that past performance is predictive of current performance in all sports, but the effect is stronger in subjective outcome sports versus objective outcome sports. That is, past performance is a better predictor of future performance in sports where external judges and referees can influence the outcomes. We find the same pattern in individual boxing matches, with past country-level performance having a stronger effect on subjective boxing outcomes (judges’ decisions) than objective boxing outcomes (knockouts). Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2144 . This paper was accepted by Jesper Sørensen, organizations.