Dynamics of Demand for Rainfall Index Insurance: Evidence from a Commercial Product in India
利用印度小额金融机构BASIX的客户数据，研究发现获得降雨指数保险赔付会使次年续保概率提高9到22个百分点，这种效应主要由行为因素驱动，而非信任或学习。
This paper analyzes the dynamic nature \n of rainfall insurance purchasing decisions, specifically \n looking at whether and why receiving an insurance payout \n induces a greater chance of purchasing insurance again the \n next year. This analysis uses customer data from the Indian \n micro-finance institution BASIX, and finds that receiving an \n insurance payout is associated with a 9 to 22 percentage \n points increased probability of purchasing insurance the \n following year. This affect appears to be driven by \n behavioral effects of receiving a payout, and cannot be \n explained by trust, learning, or direct effects of weather. \n Overall, low repurchasing rates even after payouts suggest \n that current rainfall index insurance products are likely to \n continue struggling to achieve significant sales at market prices.