Alternative Subsidy Reduction Paths: Commodity, Fiscal, and Monetary Policy Linkages
以美国农业政策为例，将政府干预纳入条件向量误差修正模型，检验货币、汇率与农业及非农业市场之间的联动关系，并通过政策模拟分析逐步削减农业补贴对货币到价格反馈效应及汇率动态路径的影响。
In the case of the U.S. agricultural policy, this paper shows how governmental intervention can be formally incorporated in a conditional-vector-error-correcting model. From the resulting theoretical framework and empirical analysis, formal hypotheses are tested regarding both forward and backward linkages among money, exchange rates, and agricultural and nonagricultural markets. Consistent with the current Uruguay Round of the GATT negotiations, a number of policy simulations are conducted with the constructed empirical model. Phased reductions in the degree of subsidization in the U.S. agricultural sector are shown, through these policy simulations, to alter the feedback effects from money to prices as well as the dynamic path for exchange rates.