Inferring superior capabilities from sustained superior performance: A Bayesian analysis
研究如何从企业持续卓越绩效中正确推断其是否拥有卓越能力，提出贝叶斯框架来区分能力差异与累积优势效应，并用模拟和实际数据验证。
Abstract To what extent can one infer that superior capabilities are driving sustained superior performance? Modeling performance as some combination of differences in capabilities and processes of cumulative advantage, we argue that a Bayesian framework in which decision makers take into account the differences in cumulative advantage provides for a correct inference. We show, using both simulated and real performance data, that the Bayesian method gives rise to estimates relevant for the inference problem. The estimates also illustrate why a firm with superior performance during a longer period can be less likely to possess superior capabilities than a firm with superior performance during a shorter period. Our work has implications for the origins of competitive advantages and for organization learning in strategy research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.