A Closer Look at the U.S. Housing Market: Modeling Relationships among Regions
研究了1975至2010年间美国九个区域住房市场的动态互动，发现长期收敛性增强，新英格兰、中大西洋和太平洋地区是主要驱动者，且区域间关系不能由人均收入和GDP解释。
This article investigates the dynamic interactions among nine U.S. regional housing markets by estimating the multivariate cointegration model using both autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) representations over the period from 1975 to 2010. Long‐run results indicate that the extent of convergence among the regional housing markets substantially increased over time and more so after the housing bubble burst in the latter part of 2006. Common stochastic trend analysis reveals that the housing regions of New England, Mid‐Atlantic and the Pacific were the primary regional drivers that led the regions toward long‐run equilibrium during the 1975 to 2006 subperiod. Further analysis indicates that the relationships among the regions cannot be attributed to trends in two important macroeconomic fundamentals: regional per capita income and regional GDP. Finally, short‐run analysis reveals substantial lead lag relationships among all the markets.