Kahn and economic dynamics
回顾了卡恩1931年关于有效需求决定国民产出的革命性分析,指出其非线性模型能内生产生混沌和不规则时间序列,为经济波动提供了除外部冲击外的另一解释。
In his famous book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Keynes was less than generous to his pupil and admirer Kahn. In 1931, the late Lord Kahn published an analysis of the revolutionary concept that national output was controlled by available resources but by effective demand. His analysis was both sequential and nonlinear and hence could generate chaotic, irregular time series of national output with the remarkable new conception that a completely determinate system, with fully specified structure, could generate behavior which was irregular and unpredictable. This remarkable conception meant that the familiar irregularity of economic time series had not one but two sources: not only the exogenous shocks but also unpredictable behavior generated endogenously by the nonlinearities characteristic of economic structures. (c) 1994 Academic Press, Inc. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.