A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs
综述了经济学实验中诱导主观概率的激励方法，比较了理论假设和实证表现，讨论了实施中的顺序效应、对冲等问题，为研究者选择方法提供指导。
Abstract Incentivized methods for eliciting subjective probabilities in economic experiments present the subject with risky choices that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons and give a new justification for the quadratic scoring rule. On the empirical side, we survey the performance of these elicitation methods in actual experiments, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order effects, hedging, and different ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects. We end with a discussion of the trade-offs involved in using incentives for belief elicitation and some guidelines for implementation.