Is There a Political Dimension on Business Cycle Synchronization?
研究了政治环境(政府意识形态、选举和内阁变动)是否影响国家间商业周期的同步性,发现左翼政府同时执政会增强同步,而右翼政府则相反。
The study of the business cycle synchronization determinants has traditionally focused on economic variables disregarding aspects such as politics and elections. This paper intends to fill in this gap and test whether the political environment is also a relevant channel explaining the synchronization between countries. Using a synchronization index for panel data we find that government ideology affects synchronization. Simultaneous left-wing governments improve business cycle synchronization while the results for right-wing governments, although statistically weak, suggest the opposite effect. In some particular cases, also elections and cabinet changes are found to have a negative impact on synchronization. Furthermore, the role of the traditional economic variables is not altered by the inclusion of this new channel.