International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data
利用国际总量和分部门通胀数据,发现部门异质性导致总量数据高估通胀持续性、低估边际成本作用,而结合分部门信息与异质性一致的估计方法能更好地拟合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线。
We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) using an international data set of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral inflation. Our results from panel time‐series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate inflation behavior. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of inflation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We find that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous‐consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.