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研究了实际利率、信用利差与银行体系结构和风险的关系，发现储蓄增加会降低利率和利差，扩大非监督银行规模并增加监督银行失败概率，模型还能解释内生繁荣-萧条周期和逆周期风险溢价。
We present a model of the relationship between real interest rates, credit spreads, and the structure and risk of the banking system. Banks intermediate between entrepreneurs and investors, and can monitor entrepreneurs projects. We characterize the equilibrium for a xed aggregate supply of savings, showing that safer entrepreneurs \nwill be funded by nonmonitoring banks and riskier entrepreneurs by monitoring banks. We show that an increase in savings reduces interest rates and spreads, increases the relative size of the nonmonitoring banking system and the probability of failure of monitoring banks. We also show that the dynamic version of the model exhibits endogenous boom and bust cycles, and rationalizes the existence of countercyclical risk premia and the connection between low interest rates, credit spreads, and the buildup of risks during booms.