PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT-HAND FALLACY
利用彩票数据研究玩家是否遵循“小数定律”，发现换号码的玩家平均会避开上周中奖号码（赌徒谬误），并更青睐近期高频号码（热手谬误）。
We investigate the ’law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ’gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ’hot-hand fallacy’.<br/>