Modeling Employment Dynamics With State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity
区分全职和兼职就业，考虑未观测异质性对儿童、教育等变量效应的影响，发现忽略随机系数和自相关会偏差状态依赖估计，且兼职冲击比全职冲击更能降低后续非就业率。
This study extends existing work on the dynamics of labor force participation by distinguishing between full-time and part-time employment and by allowing unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of previous employment outcomes, children and education on labor supply behavior. In addition, unobserved heterogeneity may feature autocorrelation and correlated random effects. The results reveal significant variation in the effects of children and education on labor supply behavior. Moreover, the omission of random coefficients and autocorrelation biases estimates of state dependencies. On average, temporary shocks that increase the rate of part-time employment lead subsequently to lower rates of nonemployment than do shocks that temporarily increase the rate of full-time work. The article has additional online supplementary material.