Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI
利用实时数据估计马尔可夫转换模型，发现经GDP平减指数调整的国内总收入（GDI）增长率比实际GDP增长率更能及时识别经济衰退的起始，并指出低增长阶段的定义在1978至2005年间发生了显著变化。
This work estimates Markov switching models on real‐time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income (GDI), deflated by the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of real GDP. This result suggests that placing an increased focus on GDI may be useful in assessing the current state of the economy. In addition, the paper shows that the definition of a low‐growth phase in the Markov switching models changed considerably from 1978 to 2005. The models increasingly came to define this phase as an extended period of around zero rather than negative growth, diverging somewhat from the traditional definition of a recession.