Self‐Serving Attribution Bias, Overconfidence, and the Issuance of Management Forecasts
通过实验和调查，发现管理者因自我服务归因偏差而高估自身对业绩的贡献，进而增强对未来业绩的信心，更愿意发布盈利预测；同时，性格特质中的过度乐观和校准偏差也起推动作用。
ABSTRACT Prior studies document that managers consider a variety of costs and benefits when deciding whether to issue earnings forecasts. Using an abstract experiment and a survey of experienced financial managers, we provide evidence that managerial overconfidence may also contribute to this decision. Our experiment shows that participants engage in self‐serving attribution, giving greater weight to internal than external factors as explanations for good performance. This increases confidence in improved future performance, which increases their willingness to issue forecasts. Two facets of the stable individual trait overconfidence, dispositional optimism and miscalibration, also contribute to confidence in improved future performance and willingness to issue forecasts. Consistent with these results, experienced financial manager survey participants believe other managers are likely to overestimate the extent to which they contribute to positive firm performance, and both overoptimism about firm performance and overconfidence in their ability to predict future firm performance contribute to issuance of earnings forecasts.