Incorporating Outcome Uncertainty and Prior Outcome Beliefs in Stated Preferences
通过选择实验研究气候变化下保护政策偏好，发现结果不确定性降低效用，且受访者的先验信念显著影响不确定性成本，表明仅告知客观不确定性不足以纠正偏好偏差。
Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty will not necessarily solve the problem of people valuing something differently from originally intended: respondents’ prior beliefs must be accounted for. <i></i>