Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration
研究发现美国总统为民主党人时经济表现更好，原因并非货币或财政政策差异，而是更温和的石油冲击、更高的全要素生产率和更有利的国际环境。
The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future.