Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data
利用美国历史数据，研究发现无论经济是否萧条，政府支出乘数都小于1；但在零利率下限时期，部分估计显示乘数可达1.5。
We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of economic slack or when interest rates are near the zero lower bound. Using new quarterly historical US data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions, we estimate multipliers that are below unity irrespective of the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to two leading identification schemes, two different estimation methodologies, and many alternative specifications. In contrast, the results are more mixed for the zero lower bound state, with a few specifications implying multipliers as high as 1.5.