IDENTIFYING THE RESPONSE OF FERTILITY TO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
利用法国劳动力调查数据和税收福利系统，通过工资差异带来的福利变化识别经济激励对生育决策的影响，发现每月150欧元无条件儿童补贴对三孩生育效果最强。
SUMMARY While using financial incentives to increase fertility has become relatively common, the effects of such policies are difficult to assess. We propose an identification strategy that relies on the fact that the variation in wages induces variation in benefits and tax credits among ‘comparable’ households. We implement our approach by estimating a discrete‐choice model of female participation and fertility using individual data from the French Labor Force Survey and a detailed representation of the French tax–benefit system. Our results suggest that financial incentives have had a significant effect on fertility decisions in France. As an example, we simulate the effects of an additional, unconditional child credit of 150 euros per month. The effects are strongest for the third child. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.