A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825–1929: Construction and Implications
构建了1825-1929年美国银行恐慌的新序列，并用向量自回归等方法分析其对产出的影响，解决了恐慌识别和因果方向两大难题。
There are two major problems in identifying the output effects of banking panics of the pre–Great Depression era. First, it is not clear when panics occurred because prior panic series differ in their identification of panic episodes. Second, establishing the direction of causality is tricky. This paper addresses these two problems (i) by deriving a new panic series for the 1825–1929 period and (ii) by studying the output effects of major banking panics via vector autoregression (VAR) and narrative-based methods. The new series has important implications for the history of financial panics in the United States.