What Drives Exponential Improvements?
揭示了性能和成本指数级改进的两大驱动机制：利用物理现象创造材料和几何缩放，并解释了为何不同技术改进速度不同，有助于识别新技术何时经济可行。
This article illuminates the drivers of exponential improvements in performance and cost and explains why some technologies experience more rapid improvements than others. It shows how exponential improvements in performance and cost are largely driven by two mechanisms: creating materials to better exploit their physical phenomena; and geometric scaling. Improvements in some technologies are directly experienced through these two mechanisms, while improvements in higher-level “systems” are indirectly experienced through improvements in specific “components.” Understanding these drivers can help us better recognize when new technologies might become economically feasible and thus create appropriate policies for promoting improvements.