AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE GERMAN BUNDESBANK AFTER 1983
使用协整VAR模型，对比1983年前后德国货币、收入、价格和利率的关系，发现1983年后传统货币机制失效，债券利率成为关键变量。
A cointegrated VAR model describing a small macroeconomic system consisting of money, income, prices, and interest rates is estimated on split sample data before and after 1983. The monetary mechanisms are found to be significantly different. Before 1983 the money supply is controllable and expansion or contraction of money supply has the expected effect on prices, income, and interest rates. After 1983 the conventional mechanisms no longer seem to work. The empirical analysis points to the crucial role of the bond rate in the system, particularly for the more recent period.