Modeling the Market and Welfare Effects of Mexico's “Agriculture by Contract” Program
构建模拟模型分析墨西哥“合同农业”计划对玉米市场的价格风险缓解效果，发现该计划虽能削弱中间商市场势力，但仍导致总体福利显著损失。
“Agriculture by contract” (A × C) is the main Mexican government program aimed at mitigating price risks for agricultural producers in Mexico. A × C has unique features involving forward contracts and the provision of basis subsidies and subsidized exchange‐traded futures options for both producers and intermediaries. A simulation model is developed to analyze the market and welfare effects of A × C. When applied to corn, results show that A × C exerts substantial impacts and causes large transfers across sectors. Even if A × C reduced intermediaries' market power to the largest extent feasible, results indicate that it would still cause important losses in aggregate welfare.