Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective
利用新构建的生产率差异、外部失衡和商品贸易条件指标，对48个工业国家和新兴市场的实际汇率与基本面进行面板协整分析，发现商品贸易条件对实际汇率有强正向影响，而生产率差异影响较小。
This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the consumer price index‐based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets, government consumption, and trade restrictions tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.