ON RISK, RATIONALITY AND EXCESSIVE SPECULATION IN THE DEUTSCHMARK‐US DOLLAR EXCHANGE MARKET: SOME EVIDENCE USING SURVEY DATA
利用1985-1986年德国马克-美元汇率的调查数据，检验远期外汇市场是否有效，避免了传统方法需要联合假设的问题。
In this paper, the authors argue that survey data on exchange-rate expectations is especially useful fo r testing whether the forward market for foreign exchange is efficien t, since it obviates the need to impose a joint hypothesis on a stand ard efficiency equation. They utilize such data for this purpose for the deutsche mark-U.S. dollar exchange rate over the period 1985.2 to 1986.4. Copyright 1988 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd