The Behavioral Dynamics of Youth Smoking
利用1988-1992年美国50州青少年纵向数据，发现过去吸烟对当前吸烟有显著因果作用，且对价格敏感度因过去使用而异，表明长期提价效果大于短期。
Abstract Individual smoking behavior persists over time, but is this repeated behavior attributed to past use or individual heterogeneity? Using longitudinal data on teens from all 50 United States from 1988 to 1992, we find a significant causal role for endogenous past cigarette consumption even after controlling extensively for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We also find measurable evidence of different sensitivities to cigarette price depending on past use. These two findings suggest that a cigarette price increase will have a larger aggregate effect in the long run than in the short run as more individuals accumulate in the price-sensitive nonsmoking group.